非理性繁荣读后感【优秀6篇】

认真读完一本名著后，大家一定对生活有了新的感悟和看法，此时需要认真地做好记录，写写读后感了。可是读后感怎么写才合适呢？作文迷为大家精心整理了非理性繁荣读后感【优秀6篇】，希望大家可以喜欢并分享出去。

内容导航

《非理性繁荣》读书心得 篇1《非理性繁荣》读后感 篇2《非理性繁荣》读书心得 篇3《非理性繁荣》读后感 篇4非理性繁荣读后感 篇5《非理性繁荣》读后感 篇6

《非理性繁荣》读书心得 篇1

每当我向身边的朋友、同事和同学们表达价值投资概念的时候，他们多数表示了深深的怀疑。被他们问及最多的话题就是，当前中国的股市，适合做长期投资吗

Whenever I express the concept of value investment to my friends, colleagues and classmates around me, most of them expressed deep doubts.The topic that they asked the most is that the current Chinese stock market is suitable for long -term investment

我认为这个问题需要纠正一下。如果是炒股票、做波段，能够问在当下；但如果是对价值投资这样一个长周期的投资活动而言，这个问题就就应改正成这样:从此刻到未来的十年或者二十年间，适合做长期投资吗这样时间范围和标的才对应得上。对于这个问题，一开始我是用对中国经济长期看好来进行解释的。回答的多了，自己也发现这个解释存在着不尽合理的问题。因为经济和股市虽然存在着相关性，但是是否必须是强相关，他们的增长步调是否必须是一致，这却是不能够下一个定论的。因为后者比前者具有更多的随机性。

I think this problem needs to be corrected.If it is speculating stocks and making bands, it can be asked in the present; but if it is such a long -term investment activity such a long -term investment activity, this problem should be corrected: from this moment to the next ten or twenty years,Is it suitable for long -term investment?At the beginning, I used to explain the long -term optimism of the Chinese economy.After answering too much, I also found that there was an inexhaustible problem with this explanation.Although the economy and the stock market are correlated, whether it must be strong and whether their growth pace must be consistent, this cannot be concluded.Because the latter has more randomness than the former.

这个问题还存在着一个潜台词，那就是是否只有美国的股市比较适合做价值投资，而中国这样一个法制不健全，股市发育不良的环境下，不必须能够带给价值投资的土壤。那么，美国的股市又是一个什么样貌的呢

There is also a subtext that there is a subtext, that is, whether only the US stock market is more suitable for value investment, and a legal system such as China is not sound and the stock market development is not necessary to bring the soil where value investment is required.So, what is the appearance of the US stock market?

罗伯特﹒j﹒希勒著于2000年的《非理性繁荣》，正是一本分析美国上世纪末股市繁荣现象，以及整个20世纪美国股市发展的重要作品。“非理性繁荣”一词，源于美国联邦储备委员会主席艾伦﹒格林斯潘。1996年12月5日，应对全球股市的持续繁荣与大幅上涨，作为当时美联储主席的格林斯潘在华盛顿对当下的股市做出了“非理性繁荣”的决定。这一决定震惊了世界，被称为“格林斯潘震撼”并导致欧美股市暴跌。但在这之后，美国股市出现了长达三年的大牛市，道﹒琼斯工业股票指数（道指）从6500点一路上涨至12000多点，格林斯潘对股市的决定被彻底否定。从那以后，格林斯潘就对全球股市三缄其口，就连当年纳斯达克股市上涨至5100多点、市盈率已达850多倍时，格林斯潘也没有对股市发表任何评论。

Robert﹒j﹒Hill's "irrational prosperity" in 2000 is an important work that analyzes the phenomenon of stock market prosperity at the end of the last century and the development of the US stock market throughout the 20th century.The term "irrational prosperity" originated from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Committee Allen﹒Grimpan.On December 5, 1996, the continuous prosperity and rise in the global stock market, as the then Fed Chairman, Green Panpan made a decision to "irrational prosperity" in the current stock market in Washington.This decision shocked the world, known as "Greens Pan's shock" and caused the European and American stock market to plummet.But after that, the U.S. stock market has appeared in a big bull market for three years.Jones Industrial Stock Index (Dow) rose from 6,500 points to more than 12,000 points, and Greenspan's decision on the stock market was completely denied.Since then, Grimpan has been silent about the global stock market. Even when the Nasdaq's stock market rose to more than 5,100 points and the price -earnings ratio had reached more than 850 times, Grimpan did not comment on the stock market.

2000年，希勒使用“非理性繁荣”为题著书，成为当年投资类图书经典。此时，道指突破了11700点，距离1896年5月26日公布时的40、94点，增长了286倍；距离1972年11月14日的1003、16点，增长了11、7倍；距离1995年11月21日的5023、55点，增长了一倍。即便是在道指诞生一百年的2006年5月间，指数也在11000点区间。从这个总体趋势上来看，股市一向向上，走向繁荣。但是，1929年股市崩盘，直到60年代才再次回到原先的点位；70年代的股灾，也是到了90年代初才再次回到原先的位置。和中国股市18年间五次起落相比，美国的股民可谓是既有幸福的一代，又有痛苦的一代；而中国的股民，却只是悲喜交加的一代。

In 2000, Hiller used the title of "irrational prosperity" to become a classic of investment books.At this time, the Dow exceeded 11,700 points, an increase of 286 times from 40 or 94 points at the time of May 26, 1896; 1003 and 16 times from November 14, 1972, an increase of 11 or 7 times;5023 and 55 points from November 21, 1995, doubled.Even in May 2006, in May 2006, the index was at 11,000 points.Judging from this overall trend, the stock market has always been up and prosperous.However, the stock market collapsed in 1929, and it was not until the 1960s that it returned to the original point again; the stock disaster in the 1970s returned to the original position until the early 1990s.Compared with the five years of ups and downs of the Chinese stock market, US shareholders can be described as a happy generation and painful generation; but Chinese shareholders are only a generation of sadness and joy.

这本为2000年处于网络股和科技股泡沫中的美国投资者所写的书，善意地给出了这样一个结论:

This book written by American investors in the bubble of online stocks and technology stocks in 2000 gave such a conclusion goodwill:

“公众常被认为学会了股票在下跌之后总会反弹这个基本常识。我们已经看到，许多证据证明大部人是这样想的，但是他们想错了。股票能够下跌，而且能够下跌许多年。股票市场能够被高估，同样能够低迷许多年。

"The public is often considered to have learned the basic common sense that stocks have rebounded after falling. We have seen that many evidence proves that most people think so, but they think wrong. Stocks can fall and can fall for many years.The stock market can be overestimated and can also be lost for many years.

“公众常被认为了解到，从长期看股票总是优于其他投资，比如债券，所以长期投资者投资股票会好一些。我们看到，有证据证明大部分人都是这么想的，但他们又想错了。在数十年的时间里，股票并不比其他投资优越，也没有理由相信它将来也会这样。

"The public is often considered to understand that from long -term stocks, it is always better than other investments, such as bonds, so long -term investors will invest in stocks. We can see that there is evidence that most people think so, but they think that they think so, but they think soI thought it was wrong again. For decades, stocks were not superior to other investment, and there was no reason to believe that it would be like this in the future.

“公众也常被认为了解到，股票投资聪明的做法在于选取共同基金，因为它们了解市场的变化。我们发现大部分确实是这么想的，但是他们又一次错了。选取业绩良好的共同基金所获得的收益比投资者想象得要少。”

"The public is often considered to understand that the clever approach of stock investment is to choose a common fund because they understand the changes in the market. We find that most of them really think so, but they are wrong again.The income obtained is less than investors. "

既然被评为年度最佳读物，至少说明讲得资料得有一些道理能够支持结论，并且说服了一些读者。作者列举了12条主要原因用以说明2000年牛市的构成诱因，社会力量如何构成了一个天然的放大机制以推动牛市不断走高，新闻媒体和新经济思想如何扮演关键性主角，以及投资者群体又是如何一齐在人性的作用下共舞狂欢。放在2008年的春天来看，除了12条诱因的其中二三要对其略略地调整之外，其它的一概不动，我认为就应也能够对当下中国的股市进行完整地诠释了。

Since it is rated as the best reading of the year, at least it shows that some information can support the conclusions and persuaded some readers.The author listed 12 main reasons to illustrate the incentives of the bull market in 2000. How social forces constitute a natural amplification mechanism to promote the continuous rise in bull markets, how the news media and new economic ideas play the key protagonist, and the investor group and the group.How can they dance and carnival under the role of human nature.In the spring of 2008, in addition to the twenty -three incentives of the 12 incentives, the other remained motionless. I think that it should be able to fully interpret the current Chinese stock market.

价值投资的先行者，巴菲特的师傅格雷厄姆经过多年的打拼，格雷厄姆联合账户到1929年为止资金已达250万。但是随后的崩盘以及之后的危机接踵而来，尽管格雷厄姆十分留意谨慎，还是在1930年损失了20%。以为最糟糕的时候已经过去，他又贷款来投资股票，然而所谓的底部一再被跌破，1932年联合账户跌掉了70%之多，格雷厄姆也濒临破产。痛定思痛，格老力著《有价证券分析》(securityanalysis)一书，是对1929年西方世界经济大萧条深刻反思的产物，奠定了格老作为美国及至世界的证券分析家与投资理论家的地位。年轻的巴菲特看了1942年格老的又一部力作《聪明的投资人》(theintelli-gentinvestor)之后，毅然决定选取哥仑比亚大学就读并终生追随格老。

For the pioneer of value investment, Buffett's master Graham has worked for many years, and Graham's joint account has reached 2.5 million until 1929.However, the subsequent collapse and the subsequent crisis followed, and although Graham paid attention to caution, it lost 20%in 1930.I thought the worst time had passed, and he loaned again to invest in stocks. However, the so -called bottom was repeatedly fell. In 1932, the joint account fell 70%, and Graham was also on the verge of bankruptcy.The pain and pain, Ge Lao's book "Securityanalysis" is the product of the deep reflection of the Great Depression of the Western World Economic in 1929.EssenceAfter the young Buffett watched another masterpiece of the old man in 1942, "Theintelli-Gentinvestor" resolutely decided to choose Golun Bia University to study and follow the old man for life.

格老虽有价值投资理论，但生不逢时，30年代的大萧条和40年代的世界大战使其无用武之地。但是巴菲特幸运得多，格老的理论让他四十余年来大放异彩，直至登上世界首富的宝座。巴氏1963年收购并改组了berkshirehathaway公司，使其成为他的投资利器。但是不幸的事情还是没有放过他和其它任何投资者:70年代的两次世界性经济危机以及水的双重打击，使美国工业生产下降22%，失业率高达11%，通货膨胀率到达18%，道琼斯工业平均指数从1973年1月的最高点1016点下跌到1974年底的557点，纽约股票交易所市值下跌了40%。1974年巴菲特的个人财富也缩水超过50%。自1982年底美国经济摆脱战后最严重的一次经济危机进入复苏以来，美国已经历了长达95个月的经济扩展，创下了举世瞩目的和平时期持续时间最长的经济扩展记录。80年代初期，股票价格开始回升，到1987年8月份道指到达2722点。10月19日，华尔街爆发了历史上最大的一次股票崩溃，单日跌幅达22、6%，巴菲特损失了市值的25%。1999年3月16日，在美国经济继续强劲增长、无通胀压力和网络、科技泡沫的推动下，道指一度突破10000点大关。而巴菲特则在泡沫中业绩平平，1999年竟然只有0、5%的回报。

Although Ge Lao has a valuable investment theory, it is not born, the Great Depression in the 1930s and the World War of the 40s made it useless. But Buffett was very lucky. The theory of Ge Lao made him shine for more than forty years until he became the throne of the world's richest man. BarkshireHathaway was acquired and reorganized in Paichi to make him an investment weapon. However, unfortunate things still did not let him go with any other investors: the two worldwide economic crisis and the dual blows of water in the 1970s, which reduced American industrial production by 22%, an unemployment rate was as high as 11%, and the inflation rate reached 18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from the highest point in January 1973 to 557 points at the end of 1974, and the market value of the New York Stock Exchange fell 40%. In 1974, Buffett's personal wealth also shrunk by more than 50%. Since the most serious economic crisis in the US economy has entered the recovery at the end of 1982, the United States has experienced a 95 -month economic expansion, setting the longest economic expansion record of the world's attention. In the early 1980s, the stock price began to rise, and by August 1987, the Dow reached 2722 points. On October 19, Wall Street broke out in history the largest stock collapse, a single day of 22, 6%, and Buffett lost 25%of the market value. On March 16, 1999, driven by the US economy continued to grow strongly, without inflation pressure, and the promotion of the Internet, and technology bubbles, the Dow once exceeded the 10,000 -point mark. Buffett's performance in the bubble was mediocre, and in 1999, there were only 0 or 5%returns.

结果呢巴菲特2008年致股东的信中写到:“2007年我们的资本净值收益为123亿美元，这使得我们的a股和b股的账面价值同时增长了11%。在过去的43年里（意味着自这一任管理层接手那天开始），我们的股票账面价值已经从每股19美元涨至78008美元，相当于每年21、1%的综合增速。”

As a result, Buffett wrote in the letter of shareholders in 2008: "In 2007, our net capital return was $ 12.3 billion, which increased the book value of our A shares and B shares by 11%at the same time. In the past 43 years, in the past 43 years(It means that from the day of this management, we started. The book value of our stock has risen from $ 19 per share to $ 7,8008, which is equivalent to a comprehensive growth rate of 21 and 1%per year. "

看上去，希勒的观点和巴氏的业绩存在矛盾，其实不然。希勒所指得是普遍好处上投资领域的规律；而巴氏则是在规律的之下，运用价值投资所产生的特殊效果。

It seems that Hiller's point of view is contradictory with Pasal's performance, but it is not.Hiller refers to the law of general benefits in the field of investment; Pakistan is the special effect produced by value investment under the law.

我们需要做的事情，一是决定我们所处的时代会向着什么样的趋势前行，二是能够更加深入地思考和检视自己的投资理念，找到有哪些是属于自信过度，又有哪些是属于异想天开。

What we need to do is to determine what kind of trend we will be in, and the other is to think and look at our investment concepts more deeply.The whimsical sky is open.

《非理性繁荣》读后感 篇2

美国金融学教授罗伯特·J·希勒的新作《非理性繁荣》出版后，引起了人们广泛关注。在此书中，希勒用了较多的金融行为学理论来解释九十年代后期美国股市的泡沫成因。

After the publication of the new work of Robert J. Hibel, a professor of finance, the publication of "irrational prosperity" has aroused widespread attention.In this book, Hiller used more financial behavior theory to explain the causes of bubbles in the US stock market in the late 1990s.

由于中国股市这几年的连续上涨对投资者的心理冲击，这在美国股市更为剧烈。

Due to the continuous rise in the Chinese stock market in recent years, the psychological impact of investors has become more violent in the US stock market.

希勒就指出，那些相信股市会下滑和连续减速的人由于年复一年不断地出现判断错误，对自己的坏情绪很敏感。

Hiller pointed out that those who believe that the stock market will decline and continue to slow down continuously due to the continuous judgment of judgment year after year, which is sensitive to his bad emotions.

那些不断预测下滑的人由于总是在错，会痛苦地感觉到丢面子。由于对认识世界的满意程度是自尊和个人身份的一部分，很自然地，以前悲观的人想建立一个不同的世界观，或至少会在公众面前呈现出不同的态度。也正因为如此，“空翻多”的能量有时会很强大，甚至很多人在高位也奋不顾身地涌入市场。

Those who are constantly predicting that they are always wrong, they will feel lost.Because satisfaction with the world is part of self -esteem and personal identity, it is natural. Before pessimistic people wanted to build a different worldview, or at least show a different attitude in front of the public.Because of this, the energy of "overheading" is sometimes very powerful, and even many people pour into the market regardless of their respects.

尤其是当股票投资已经成为一种大众文化，投资人更是害怕“踏空”。

Especially when stock investment has become a popular culture, investors are even more afraid of "emptying".

对于人们为什么不能做出独立的判断和选择，一般的解释是迫于社会压力的屈从，人们害怕被看成是另类或是傻瓜，他们的判断受到了动摇。

For why people cannot make independent judgments and choices, the general explanation is for the sake of social pressure. People are afraid to be regarded as alternative or fools, and their judgments have been shaken.

但社会心理学家早在五十年代就通过实验表明，人们未必是害怕在一群人之前表达一个相反的观点，而是“传统理性”告诉他们，当大部分人都做出相同判断时，那么差不多可以肯定，大部分人是正确的。所谓顺势而为。

However, social psychologists passed the experiment as early as the 1950s that people may not be afraid to express a opposite view before a group of people, but "traditional rationality" told them that when most people make the same judgment, thenIt's almost certain that most people are correct.The so -called follow -up.

人们对股评家、分析师和经济学的所谓“权威”的依赖感。尤其是在社会分工日益明显的今天，人们信赖专家成为一种习惯，总以为专家推荐的股票或走势的看法是经过深思熟虑的，跟他们走没错。

People depend on the so -called "authority" of stock critics, analysts and economics.Especially today, with the increasingly divided social division of labor, people trust experts have become a habit. The opinions of the stock or trend recommended by experts are thought -provided, and they are right to go with them.

还有一点也颇值得关注，就是投资者经常对价位高估习以为常，只有等到股价跌了个50%甚至100%，才恍然大悟。心理学家已经证明，人们在模棱两可的情况下做出的决定往往会受到身边因素的影响。

It is also quite worthy of attention, that is, investors often think that the price is often estimated. Only when the stock price falls by 50%or even 100%, will it suddenly realize.Psychologists have proven that people's decisions made under ambiguous circumstances are often affected by factors around them.

在股市中，暴涨和暴跌适合喜欢刺激的投资者与大牛市的热潮。但一般而言，阴跌和缓涨则容易让人轻信，或者说有时更能把一般投资者套住。其中的原理就是利用了价格的持续性能给害怕风险的人以心理依托。

In the stock market, the surge and plummeter are suitable for the upsurge of investors and bull markets who like to stimulate.But generally speaking, it is easy to make people trust in the yin and slowdown, or sometimes it can set up ordinary investors.The principle is to use the continuous performance of the price to give people a psychological support for those who are afraid of risks.

在市场和日常生活中，我们也会发现有些向来谨慎的人会突然做出一些意想不到的危险举动，这往往是和信心过度有关。过度自信有许多表现形式，最典型的事是“事后聪明”，它使人们认为世界实际上很容易预测。

In the market and daily life, we will also find that some cautious people will suddenly make some unexpected dangerous actions, which is often related to excessive confidence.There are many forms of excessive self -confidence. The most typical thing is "smart afterwards." It makes people think that the world is actually easy to predict.

1987年10月19日美国出现“黑色星期一”之后希勒做过一个问卷调查。第一个问题是“你当天就知道什么时候会发生反弹吗？”在没有参与交易的人中，有29、2%的个人和28%机构的答案是肯定的。在参加交易的个人和机构中也有近一半人认为是知道何时反弹。

Hiller did a questionnaire survey after October 19, 1987 appeared in the United States.The first question is "Do you know when it will rebound on the same day?" Among those who have not participated in the transaction, 29 and 2%of individuals and 28%of institutions answers are yes.Nearly half of the individuals and institutions participating in the transaction think they know when they have rebounded.

“事后聪明”确实在股市中频繁发生，除了过度自信外，也可能与“虚荣”倾向有关。

"Smart afterwards" does happen frequently in the stock market. In addition to excessive confidence, it may also be related to the tendency of "vanity".

市场的真正命脉在于信息与判断未来，虽然后者是极难做到的事情。

The real lifeblood of the market lies in the future of information and judgment, although the latter is extremely difficult to do.

在希勒看来，美联储主席格林斯可能也是金融行为学的研究对象。1996年12月4日，希勒向格林斯潘和美联储董事会作了证明股市水平不合理性的报告。第二天，格林斯潘就发表了“非理性繁荣亢奋”的演说，导致股市暴跌。但仅仅几个月后，格林斯潘又站到了乐观派的一边，提出了“新时代”的看法。

According to Hiller's view, the Fed Chairman Greenus may also be a research object of financial behavior.On December 4, 1996, Hiller made a report to Greenspan and the Federal Reserve's board of directors to prove the unreasonable level of the stock market.The next day, Grimpan made a speech of "irrational prosperity and excitement", which led to a plunge in the stock market.But just a few months later, Grimpan stood on the side of an optimistic school and put forward the view of the "new era".

《非理性繁荣》读书心得 篇3

关于这本书我并没有像以往一样去买一本而是直接在网上下载的电子文档来读的。首先，先简单介绍一下这本书吧。《非理性繁荣》书名取自美国联邦准备理事会理事主席葛林史班1996年底在华府希尔顿饭店演讲中，谈到当时美国金融资产价格泡沫时所引用的一句名言。从那时起，许多学者、专家都注意到美国股市因投机风气过盛而引发的投资泡沫现象。英国《经济学人》杂志甚至多次预言美国的投资泡沫将破，但是每当美国股市有衰竭的症候时，就会有另一股投机热潮注入，让股市得以暂时维持不坠，直至近日方有软着陆的迹象。

I did not buy an e -document directly downloaded on the Internet like before.First of all, briefly introduce this book.The title of "irrational prosperity" was taken from the US Federal Preparatory Council's chairman Gelin Shiban in a speech at the Hilton Hotel in Washington at the end of 1996.Since then, many scholars and experts have noticed the investment bubble phenomenon caused by the prevalence of the US stock market.The British "Economist" magazine even predicted that the investment bubble in the United States will be broken many times, but whenever the US stock market has a failed syndrome, another speculative boom will be injected, so that the stock market can be temporarily maintained until recently.There are signs of soft landing.

在《非理性繁荣》（第二版）中，罗伯特·希勒教授对2000年第一版的资料进行了适时的修正和更新，重新阐述了市场波动这一给他带来国际声誉的主题。希勒在第二版中开辟了一个新的领域，他以一种更加清晰和彻底的方式向我们展示了那些可能动摇经济运行和严重影响人们生活的市场泡沫的产生和破灭。

In "Irreishing Prosperity" (second edition), Professor Robert Hiller made a timely correction and update of the data of the first edition of 2000, and re -explained the theme of market fluctuations that brought him an international reputation.Hiller opened a new field in the second edition. He showed us a clearer and thorough way to show us the production and destruction of market bubbles that might shake economic operations and seriously affect people's lives.

在第一版中，希勒教授成功地预言了股市的下跌，而在本书中，他将研究扩展到了目前炙手可热的房地产市场，用了一章的篇幅来论述美国国内和国际房价的历史走势。

In the first edition, Professor Hiller successfully predicted the decline in the stock market. In this book, he expanded research to the current hot real estate market.Essence

在本书中，希勒透过超多的证据来说明，如果20世纪90年代末的股市，目前房地产市场的繁荣中隐含着超多的泡沫，并且最终房价可能在未来的几年中开始下跌。他认为，2000年股市泡沫破灭之后，许多投资者将资金投向房地产市场，这使得美国乃至世界各地的房地产价格均出现了不同程度的上涨。因此，非理性繁荣非没有消失，只是在另一个市场中再次出现。

In this book, Hiller explains through many evidence that if the stock market in the late 1990s, there are currently many bubbles in the prosperity of the real estate market, and the final house prices may start in the next few years.Fall.He believes that after the bubble of the stock market in 2000, many investors invested funds to the real estate market, which has caused real estate prices in the United States and even around the world to varying degrees.Therefore, irrational prosperity has not disappeared, but it only appears in another market.

在第一版的基础上，希勒教授描述了金融市场波动的心理根源，并且着力列举和论述了自由市场经济中，资本市场所固有的不稳定性。比如，艾伦·格林斯潘著名的“非理性繁荣”演说给人们带来的影响。

On the basis of the first edition, Professor Hiller described the psychological root of the financial market fluctuations, and focused on listing and discussing the unstable instability of the capital market in the free market economy.For example, Allen Greenspan's famous "irrational prosperity" speech has the impact on people.

他认为，最终摆脱这种困境的途径在于社会制度的改善，比如进一步完善社会保障制度，增加保险品种以保障人们的收入和住房，以及更加分散化的投资选取。就像该书的第一版一样，《非理性繁荣》的第二版必须会吸引更多的人阅读和讨论。

He believes that the way to get rid of this dilemma is to improve the social system, such as further improving the social security system, increasing insurance varieties to ensure people's income and housing, and more decentralized investment selection.Just like the first edition of the book, the second edition of "irrational prosperity" must attract more people to read and discuss.

《纽约时报》的保罗·克鲁格曾这样评价这本书曼罗伯特·希勒先生揭示了金融市场非理性的一面，在这方面，他比同时代的其他任何经济学家做得都多。”罗伯特﹒J﹒希勒著于2000年的《非理性繁荣》，正是一本分析美国上世纪末股市繁荣现象，以及整个20世纪美国股市发展的重要作品。“非理性繁荣”一词，源于美国联邦储备委员会主席艾伦﹒格林斯潘。1996年12月5日，应对全球股市的持续繁荣与大幅上涨，作为当时美联储主席的格林斯潘在华盛顿对当下的股市做出了“非理性繁荣”的决定。这一决定震惊了世界，被称为“格林斯潘震撼”并导致欧美股市暴跌。但在这之后，美国股市出现了长达三年的大牛市，道﹒琼斯工业股票指数（道指）从6500点一路上涨至12000多点，格林斯潘对股市的决定被彻底否定。从那以后，格林斯潘就对全球股市三缄其口，就连当年纳斯达克股市上涨至5100多点、市盈率已达850多倍时，格林斯潘也没有对股市发表任何评论。

The New York Times Paul Crug once commented on this book, Mr. Robert Hiller, revealed the irrational side of the financial market. In this regard, he has done more than any other economists in the same era. "Robert ﹒J 勒 勒” ”'s" irrational prosperity "in 2000 is an important work that analyzes the phenomenon of stock market prosperity at the end of the last century and the development of the entire 20th century. At the Chairman of the United States Federal Reserve Board, Ellen Green Panpan. On December 5, 1996, the continuous prosperity and increase in the global stock market, as the then Federal Reserve Chairman, Green Panpan in Washington made the "unreasonable unreasonable stock market in Washington's current stock market. The decision of prosperity. This decision shocked the world, known as "Greens Pan's shock" and caused the European and American stock market to plummet. But after that, the US stock market has appeared for three years. (Dow) rose from 6,500 points to more than 12,000 points, Greenspan's decision on the stock market was completely denied. Since then, Greenspan has been silent about the global stock market, even the Nasdaq's stock market rose to more than 5100 that year to more than 5100 When the point and price -earnings ratio have reached more than 850 times, Greenspan did not comment on the stock market.

2000年，希勒使用“非理性繁荣”为题著书，成为当年投资类图书经典。此时，道指突破了11700点，距离1896年5月26日公布时的40.94点，增长了286倍；距离1972年11月14日的1003.16点，增长了11.7倍；距离1995年11月21日的5023.55点，增长了一倍。即便是在道指诞生一百年的2006年5月间，指数也在11000点区间。从这个总体趋势上来看，股市一向向上，走向繁荣。但是，1929年股市崩盘，直到60年代才再次回到原先的点位；70年代的股灾，也是到≤www..cn≥了90年代初才再次回到原先的位置。和中国股市18年间五次起落相比，美国的股民可谓是既有幸福的一代，又有痛苦的一代；而中国的股民，却只是悲喜交加的一代。

In 2000, Hiller used the title of "irrational prosperity" to become a classic of investment books.At this time, the Dow exceeded 11,700 points, an increase of 286 times from the 40.94 points announced on May 26, 1896; 1003.16 points at 1003.16 points on November 14, 1972;The day of 5023.55 points increased doubled.Even in May 2006, in May 2006, the index was at 11,000 points.Judging from this overall trend, the stock market has always been up and prosperous.However, the stock market collapsed in 1929, and it was not until the 1960s that it returned to the original point again; the stock disaster in the 1970s also returned to the original position again in the early 1990s.Compared with the five years of ups and downs of the Chinese stock market, US shareholders can be described as a happy generation and painful generation; but Chinese shareholders are only a generation of sadness and joy.

这本为2000年处于网络股和科技股泡沫中的美国投资者所写的书，善意地给出了这样一个结论:

This book written by American investors in the bubble of online stocks and technology stocks in 2000 gave such a conclusion goodwill:

“公众常被认为学会了股票在下跌之后总会反弹这个基本常识。我们已经看到，许多证据证明大部人是这样想的，但是他们想错了。股票能够下跌，而且能够下跌许多年。股票市场能够被高估，同样能够低迷许多年。

"The public is often considered to have learned the basic common sense that stocks have rebounded after falling. We have seen that many evidence proves that most people think so, but they think wrong. Stocks can fall and can fall for many years.The stock market can be overestimated and can also be lost for many years.

“公众常被认为了解到，从长期看股票总是优于其他投资，比如债券，所以长期投资者投资股票会好一些。我们看到，有证据证明大部分人都是这么想的，但他们又想错了。在数十年的时间里，股票并不比其他投资优越，也没有理由相信它将来也会这样。

"The public is often considered to understand that from long -term stocks, it is always better than other investments, such as bonds, so long -term investors will invest in stocks. We can see that there is evidence that most people think so, but they think that they think so, but they think soI thought it was wrong again. For decades, stocks were not superior to other investment, and there was no reason to believe that it would be like this in the future.

“公众也常被认为了解到，股票投资聪明的做法在于选取共同基金，因为它们了解市场的变化。我们发现大部分确实是这么想的，但是他们又一次错了。选取业绩良好的共同基金所获得的收益比投资者想象得好，既然被评为年度最佳读物，至少说明讲得资料得有一些道理能够支持结论，并且说服了一些读者。作者列举了12条主要原因用以说明2000年牛市的构成诱因，社会力量如何构成了一个天然的放大机制以推动牛市不断走高，新闻媒体和新经济思想如何扮演关键性主角，以及投资者群体又是如何一齐在人性的作用下共舞狂欢。放在2008年的春天来看，除了12条诱因的其中二三要对其略略地调整之外，其它的一概不动，我认为就应也能够对当下中国的股市进行完整地诠释了。

"The public is often considered to understand that the clever approach of stock investment is to choose a common fund because they understand the changes in the market. We find that most of them really think so, but they are wrong again.The income obtained is better than investors. Since it is rated as the best reading of the year, at least it shows that some information can support conclusions and persuaded some readers. The author lists 12 main reasons to explain 2000 in 2000 in 2000The incentive of the bull market, how social forces constitute a natural enlarged mechanism to promote the continuous rise in bull markets, how the news media and new economic ideas play the key protagonist, and how the investor group dances and carnival under the role of human nature.In the spring of 2008, in addition to the twenty -three incentives of the 12 incentives, the other remained motionless. I think that it should be able to fully interpret the current Chinese stock market.

价值投资的先行者，巴菲特的师傅格雷厄姆经过多年的打拼，格雷厄姆联合账户到1929年为止资金已达250万。但是随后的崩盘以及之后的危机接踵而来，尽管格雷厄姆十分留意谨慎，还是在1930年损失了20%。以为最糟糕的时候已经过去，他又贷款来投资股票，然而所谓的底部一再被跌破，1932年联合账户跌掉了70%之多，格雷厄姆也濒临破产。痛定思痛，格老力著《有价证券分析》(SecurityAnalysis)一书，是对1929年西方世界经济大萧条深刻反思的产物，奠定了格老作为美国及至世界的证券分析家与投资理论家的地位。年轻的巴菲特看了1942年格老的又一部力作《聪明的投资人》之后，毅然决定选取哥仑比亚大学就读并终生追随格老。

For the pioneer of value investment, Buffett's master Graham has worked for many years, and Graham's joint account has reached 2.5 million until 1929.However, the subsequent collapse and the subsequent crisis followed, and although Graham paid attention to caution, it lost 20%in 1930.I thought the worst time had passed, and he loaned again to invest in stocks. However, the so -called bottom was repeatedly fell. In 1932, the joint account fell 70%, and Graham was also on the verge of bankruptcy.The pain and pain, Ge Lao's book "Securityanalysis" is the product of the deep reflection of the Great Depression of the Western World Economic in 1929.EssenceAfter the young Buffett watched another masterpiece "Smart Investor" in 1942, he resolutely decided to choose Goronbia University to study and follow Ge Lao for life.

格老虽有价值投资理论，但生不逢时，30年代的大萧条和40年代的世界大战使其无用武之地。但是巴菲特幸运得多，格老的理论让他四十余年来大放异彩，直至登上世界首富的宝座。巴氏1963年收购并改组了BerkshireHathaway公司，使其成为他的投资利器。但是不幸的事情还是没有放过他和其它任何投资者:70年代的两次世界性经济危机以及水的双重打击，使美国工业生产下降22%，失业率高达11%，通货膨胀率到达18%，道琼斯工业平均指数从1973年1月的最高点1016点下跌到1974年底的557点，纽约股票交易所市值下跌了40%。1974年巴菲特的个人财富也缩水超过50%。自1982年底美国经济摆脱战后最严重的一次经济危机进入复苏以来，美国已经历了长达95个月的经济扩展，创下了举世瞩目的和平时期持续时间最长的经济扩展记录。80年代初期，股票价格开始回升，到1987年8月份道指到达2722点。10月19日，华尔街爆发了历史上最大的一次股票崩溃，单日跌幅达22.6%，巴菲特损失了市值的25%。1999年3月16日，在美国经济继续强劲增长、无通胀压力和网络、科技泡沫的推动下，道指一度突破10000点大关。而巴菲特则在泡沫中业绩平平，1999年竟然只有0.5%的回报。

Although Ge Lao has a valuable investment theory, it is not born, the Great Depression in the 1930s and the World War of the 40s made it useless. But Buffett was very lucky. The theory of Ge Lao made him shine for more than forty years until he became the throne of the world's richest man. BarkshireHathaway was acquired and reorganized in Paichi to make him an investment weapon. However, unfortunate things still did not let him go with any other investors: the two worldwide economic crisis and the dual blows of water in the 1970s, which reduced American industrial production by 22%, an unemployment rate was as high as 11%, and the inflation rate reached 18%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell from the highest point in January 1973 to 557 points at the end of 1974, and the market value of the New York Stock Exchange fell 40%. In 1974, Buffett's personal wealth also shrunk by more than 50%. Since the most serious economic crisis in the US economy has entered the recovery at the end of 1982, the United States has experienced a 95 -month economic expansion, setting the longest economic expansion record of the world's attention. In the early 1980s, the stock price began to rise, and by August 1987, the Dow reached 2722 points. On October 19, Wall Street broke out in history the largest stock collapse, a single day of 22.6%, and Buffett lost 25%of the market value. On March 16, 1999, driven by the US economy continued to grow strongly, without inflation pressure, and the promotion of the Internet, and technology bubbles, the Dow once exceeded the 10,000 -point mark. Buffett's performance in the bubble was mediocre, and in 1999, there were only 0.5%returns.

结果呢巴菲特2008年致股东的信中写到:“2007年我们的资本净值收益为123亿美元，这使得我们的A股和B股的账面价值同时增长了11%。在过去的43年里（意味着自这一任管理层接手那天开始），我们的股票账面价值已经从每股19美元涨至78008美元，相当于每年21.1%的综合增速。”

As a result, Buffett wrote in the letter of shareholders in 2008: "In 2007, our net capital return was $ 12.3 billion, which increased the book value of our A shares and B shares by 11%at the same time. In the past 43 years, in the past 43 years(It means that from the day of this manager's reception), our stock book value has risen from $ 19 per share to $ 7,8008, which is equivalent to a comprehensive growth rate of 21.1%per year. "

看上去，希勒的观点和巴氏的业绩存在矛盾，其实不然。希勒所指得是普遍好处上投资领域的规律；而巴氏则是在规律的之下，运用价值投资所产生的特殊效果。

It seems that Hiller's point of view is contradictory with Pasal's performance, but it is not.Hiller refers to the law of general benefits in the field of investment; Pakistan is the special effect produced by value investment under the law.

我们需要做的事情，一是决定我们所处的时代会向着什么样的趋势前行，二是能够更加深入地思考和检视自己的投资理念，找到有哪些是属于自信过度，又有哪些是属于异想天开。

What we need to do is to determine what kind of trend we will be in, and the other is to think and look at our investment concepts more deeply.The whimsical sky is open.

总而言之，这本书能够算是一本经典之作，无论我们是否是做金融研究的都就应读一下这本书。

All in all, this book can be regarded as a classic. Whether we are doing financial research or not, we should read this book.

《非理性繁荣》读后感 篇4

席勒的《非理性繁荣》从心理学和行为金融学的角度，着力分析美国90年代中后期的网络股泡沫，同时也类比的描述了20世纪初、1929年和上世纪70年代金融危机的情况。该书是根据许多公开发表的研究报告和历史事实，对美国互联网期间股市的空前繁荣现象所做的全面研究。值得一提的是，席勒指出泡沫的形成和崩溃显现出正反馈的状态，这点与索罗斯反身理论中的暴涨暴跌不谋而合。尽管该书是以当时的市场情况为基本出发点的，但他把这一市场情况仅仅作为整个股市繁荣现象的一部分来进行研究。作者有力地指出近年来的股市飙升只不过是一场正在上演的`、大规模的偶发性庞氏骗局，最终只能是以悲剧收场。他认为当时的股市是一个投机性泡沫，指出投资者的从众心理是如此之强以至于很难控制和影响，市场定价的重大偏差能够保持几年或者几十年。

From the perspective of psychological and behavioral finance, Schiller's "Irishment Prosperity" focused on analyzing the network stock bubble in the mid -to -late 1990s. Happening. The book is a comprehensive research on the unprecedented prosperity of the stock market during the American Internet period based on many public research reports and historical facts. It is worth mentioning that Schiller pointed out that the formation and collapse of the foam showed a state of positive feedback, which coincided with the surge in Soros's anti -body theory. Although the book was based on the market situation at the time, he took the market situation as part of the phenomenon of the entire stock market. The author has strongly pointed out that the rise in the stock market in recent years is just a stagnant, a large -scale occasional Ponzi scam, and ultimately it can only end with tragedy. He believed that the stock market at that time was a speculative bubble, pointing out that investors' public psychology was so strong that it was difficult to control and influence, and the major deviation of market pricing could be maintained for several or decades.

作者在第一篇中首先重点对股市上涨的14个催化因素进行了逐一分析：在收益稳定增长时期到来的互联网；胜利主义和外国经济对手的衰落；赞美经营成功或其形象的文化变革；共和党控制国会及资本收益税的削减；生育高峰及其对市场的显著影响；媒体对财经新闻的大量报道；分析师愈益乐观的预测；规定缴费养老金方案的推广；共同基金的发展；通货膨胀回落及“货币幻觉”的影响；交易额的增加；折扣经纪人，当天交易者及24小时交易；赌*机会的增加等等。并进行了小结。

In the first article, the author first analyzed the 14 catalytic factors of the stock market rising: the Internet that arrived during the stable growth period; the decline of victoryism and foreign economic rivals; the cultural change of praise of successful operations or its image; the Republican PartyControl the reduction of Congress and capital income tax; the peak of fertility and its significant impact on the market; a large number of reports on the media on financial news; the more optimistic prediction of analysts; the promotion of the payment pension plan;And the influence of "currency hallucinations"; increase in transaction volume; discount agent, traders and 24 -hour transactions on the day; increase in gambling*opportunities, and so on.And summarized.

接着重点对股市的放大机制进行了分析：自发形成的庞氏骗局；投资者的高度信心；对投资者信心的反思；高市值情况下预期不减的例证；对投资者期望和情绪的反思；公众对市场的关注；投机性泡沫的反馈理论；作为反馈模式和泡沫的理解；作为反馈模式和投资机泡沫的庞氏骗局；自发庞氏骗局引起的投机性泡沫；当今的非理性繁荣和反馈环等。

Then focus on the enlarged mechanism of the stock market: spontaneous formed Ponzi scams; high confidence of investors; reflection on investor confidence; examples of expected expectations in high market value; reflection on investor expectations and emotions;The public's attention to the market; feedback theory of speculative bubbles; understanding of feedback mode and foam; Ponzi scams for feedback mode and investment machine bubble; speculative bubble caused by spontaneous Ponzi schemes; today's irrational prosperity and feedbackRing et al.

在第二篇中对文化性因素如新闻媒体（媒体在决定市场变化阶段中的作用；媒体讨论的形成；对市场前景的报道；创纪录过量）、新时代的经济思想、新时代和全球泡沫进行了分析。

In the second part of the cultural factors such as news media (the role of the media in determining the market change stage; formation of media discussions; reports of market prospects; excessive records), economic ideas in the new era, new era, and global bubblesAnalyzed.

在第三篇中对心理性因素如股市的心理依托、从众行为和思想影响进行了分析。

In the third chapter, the psychological reliance on psychological factors such as the stock market, the influence of the crowd and ideological influence.

最后二篇提出了理性繁荣的尝试和理性行动。

The last two articles put forward rational and prosperous attempts and rational actions.

通过阅读本书，我们可以看到美国证券市场上机构和普通的投资者如何狂热的追逐财富梦想，揭示了人类社会的贪婪和由此带来的恶果，对于广大的普通投资者防范和规避投资风险、提高投资收益有极大的帮助。对于股市投资和投机的非理性行为有深刻的教育意义。

Through reading this book, we can see how institutions and ordinary investors in the US securities market chase their dreams of wealth, reveal the greed of human society and the result brought by it, and prevent and avoid investment in ordinary investors.Risk and increase investment income are greatly helpful.It has profound educational significance for the irrational behavior of stock market investment and speculation.

本人读书习惯是先粗读一遍，后精读一遍，然后再根据精读做的重点标记写读书笔记，一字一句的敲进电脑，对自己也是个再学习加深的过程。希望本笔记能够对其他志同道合的网友有所启发，也希望大家对本人所做的笔记给予评价。

I read the habits first, read it again, and then read the reading notes according to the key marks I made according to the intensive reading, knocking into the computer one by one, and a process of deepening myself.I hope that this note can inspire other like -minded netizens, and I also hope that everyone will evaluate the notes I have made.

非理性繁荣读后感 篇5

昨忽有一感，如人生能重新选择，桂明觉有四种挺让我激情澎湃的，第一就是做个小说家，远的不说冯梦龙，就像现今的王朔、刘震云、余华、张大春之流，讲故事的能力异常彪悍，会讲故事势必思想丰富，这亦是我所追求的；第二就是做个玄学家，天朝历史、哲学等人文学科研究统统撇开玄学，在桂明看来确实有失偏颇，试问共军区区八千万之众无神论者，对抗世界主流的有神论，基督以信上帝、得永生在全球就有20亿以上的教徒，共军高举唯物论的大旗，就连孔子也只敢说“未知生，焉知死”，而有着“半壁江山一纸书”丰功伟绩的汉文帝刘桓对青年才俊贾谊也是“可怜夜半虚前席，不问苍生问鬼神”而共军对于自古一脉相承的有神论活动皆以封建迷信打发之，试问此举有木有考虑到我们这些不太向组织靠拢的唯心需求。第三，当然是现今时代的需求、时代的宠儿最赤手可热的金融才俊，远不说巴菲特、索罗斯老人家、近的如杨百万、“缠中说禅”李彪（据说曾操盘亿安科技）、带头大哥777（现在好凄惨，沦落到一个劲的在网上推销书，不过我还是一如既往的看他的博客）、王亚伟、孙建波等在金融市场呼风唤雨、一呼百应、指点股市、激扬文字；不仅名利双收，而且也抱得美人归，如台湾第一甜姐侯佩岑（婚后王牌大明星居然停了，至今桂明还难以释怀）、萨顶顶等都花落金融才俊。第四无疑还是桂明的老本行----地下工作者，记得在激情燃烧的上个世纪六十年代，一位姓毛的伟人对我们行业下达过最高指示“开发矿业、大有可为”，古人梦寐以求的“采菊东篱下、悠然见南山”的隐居生活就是我们最好的写照，古语云“小隐隐于市、大隐隐于洞”在这个物欲横流、玉体横陈、官二代、富二代横行的年代，我们居然能淡泊、洒脱的挥手告别沉鱼落、闭月羞的师妹们，前仆后继地钻入村姑无处寻的大山深入的矿井里，我们当真、果然才是这个时代的隐者。

Yesterday I felt a feeling. If life can be re -selected, Gui Mingjue has four kinds of passion. The first is to be a novelist. Streaming, the ability to tell stories is extremely sturdy, and it is inevitable to tell stories. This is also what I pursue. There is indeed a bias. I would like to ask the 80 million people of the Communist Party of China and the deity of the world's mainstream. Even Confucius dared to say "unknown life, knowing death", and the Chinese emperor Liu Yan, who had the great achievements of "half of the rivers and mountains,", was "poor night in the middle of the night, not asking Cangsheng to ask the ghosts and gods" The actions that have been inherited from ancient times have been sent by feudal superstitions since ancient times. I ask this to consider the ideal needs of us that we do not move closer to the organization. Third, of course, the needs of today's era, the most popular financial talent in the era, the most popular financial talent.盘亿安科技）、带头大哥777（现在好凄惨，沦落到一个劲的在网上推销书，不过我还是一如既往的看他的博客）、王亚伟、孙建波等在金融市场呼风唤雨、一呼百应、指点股市、激扬Text; not only the fame and fortune, but also the beauty of the beauty, such as Hou Peizen, the first sweet sister in Taiwan (the ace star after marriage has stopped, and it is still difficult for Gui Ming to be relieved), Sa Dingding, etc. are all financially talented. The fourth is undoubtedly Gui Ming's old industry-underground workers. Remember that in the 1960s of the last 1960s, a great man named Mao issued the highest instructions to our industry "the development of mining industries, there is great promising", The seclusion life of the ancients' dreaming of "Chrysanthemum East and Seeing Nanshan" is our best portrayal. The ancient saying cloud "small hidden in the city, big hidden in the cave" in this materialist, the second generation of the jade body, and the official two generations of officials In the era of the second generation of the rich second generation, we could actually be indifferent and free from the sisters who said goodbye to the sinking fish and the moon, and drilled into the deep mines where the village aunt had nowhere to find. Hidden of the times.

闲言少叙，正题要紧，却说桂明在新世纪的第二年，掐指一算，众所周知就是2001年，不才考上高中，才上高一，虽课业繁重，但那会有些误入歧途，有点文青的范，整天诗文不离手，偶尔也做做小诗，那会流行下半身现代主义风格，但无奈小县城，能阅读的只有读者、知音、故事会等人文社科类期刊杂志，当然最上档次的还是读者，那会从《读者》上看到美国原版桂明因其在信息不对称理论的杰出成就获2001若贝尔经济学奖，那时开始知道劣币驱逐良币及柠檬市场，当是时还是有点小感慨，乖乖，这么简单的观点就能获若贝尔奖啊，从此就开始对经济学产生了浓厚的兴趣，2010年一口气看了好些佛学书，心态变好了些，6月底重新杀入股市，到年底有所斩获，期间由于王牌大明星停播，故找来不少耶鲁大学公开课取代之，刚开始看博弈论，不过了无新意，所讲大部分已懂，后来看罗伯特希勒讲金融课，罗伯特希勒人巨帅，讲课时，时常从骨子里甩出的微笑贼迷人，刚开讲他就推荐自己2000年出的《非理性繁荣》，而《非理性繁荣》之前也颇有耳闻，但不知是这丫写的，因当时手头上还有很多书要看，就没有立即购买，一晃就到了上个月，当时原本是想买原版英文的，但是要160多，于是作罢，在当当买了中文版，书到几天后开了个头，便匆匆煞了尾，大概只看了20多页，本周末由于木发工资，闲来无事，从昨天下午看到今天中午，草草翻了一遍，还是颇有所获的。预知所获几何，且听桂明慢慢道来。

The gossip is less, and the topic is tight, but in the second year of Gui Ming, in the second year of the new century, it was known for one to know. It is well known that in 2001, I did n’t pass the high school. Surprisingly, a bit of Wen Qing Fan, the poems are not left all day long, and occasionally do small poems. The modernist style of the lower body will be popular, but there is no helpless small county. Journal and magazines, of course, are the readers at the highest grade. From the "Reader", the original American Gui Ming won the 2001 Ruoba Economics Award for outstanding achievements in information asymmetry. And the lemon market, when it is a little bit of emotion, obediently, such a simple view can win the Ruoye Prize. From then on, I started to have a strong interest in economics. In 2010, I read some Buddhist books in one breath. Okay, re -entered the stock market at the end of June, and won at the end of the year. During this period, due to the suspension of the ace stars, many Yale University public classes were found to replace it. I just started watching the game theory. Most of them have understood. Later, when I saw Robert Heller's financial class, the Robert Heller was handsome. During lectures, the smiling thief often thrown out of his bones was charming. As soon as he started talking, he recommended his "irrational prosperity" in 2000. And "Irreishing Prosperity" was quite heard before, but I do n’t know it was written in this time. At that time, there were still many books on hand to read, and I did n’t buy it immediately. Yes, but more than 160, so I stopped. After buying the Chinese version of Dangdang, the book opened a few days later, and I hurriedly fired. I only read more than 20 pages. Things, from yesterday afternoon to see today at noon, it was quite obtained. It is predicted that the geometry obtained and listened to Gui Ming slowly.

首先非理性繁荣是在1996年底由格林斯潘所讲的，后来该词成为格老所有讲话中被引用最多的一个词，1994年初道指还在3600点附近徘徊，而到1999年却已突破了11000点，以道指为代表的股市整体价格在五年内总涨幅超过了200%，然而为何称这股市的繁荣为非理性呢，同期的一些基本经济指标并没有同幅增长，美国居民个人收入和鸡的屁增长不到30%，如果剔除通胀，这个数字还要降低一半，而企业利润增长也不到60%，故股价如此大幅度的增长是缺乏实际经济基础的，从历史上看，这种情况也不会持久。

First of all, the irrational prosperity was spoken by Grimpan at the end of 1996. Later, the word became the most cited word in all the speeches of the old veteran. In early 1994, it was hovered near 3600 points, but in 1999, it broke through.At 11,000 points, the overall price of the stock market represented by the Dow has increased by more than 200%within five years. However, why is it called the prosperity of the market?Income and chicken fart increased by less than 30%. If inflation is removed, this number should be reduced by half, and the profit growth of corporate profits is less than 60%.This situation will not last.

书中第二章，希勒就通过大量的数据、详细的分析指出长期来看投资房地产的回报是不理想的，其中很多的观点都挺全面，能深深地让人有共鸣，比如居住在大城市的人们经常会认为作为房价最主要组成部门的土地价格会不断上涨。他们确信居住在这些地区具有得天独厚的'优势，人们可以享有生活在名人聚居区的声望，也可以从这些地区的商业机会中获取利益。那里的居民很容易认为，会有越来越多的人抱有和他们一样的想法，人们会继续哄抬他们所在城市的房地产价格，房地产市场的非理性繁荣开始出现。但事实上，如果房价相对于居民收入涨得太高，人们就很，难负担得起一套像样的住房。人们的想法也会因此发生改变。他们将逐步意识到，居住在大城市里给人们带来的声望并没有那么重要，尽管个别城市由于拥有独特的商业活动而名声在外。人们会发现拥有同样商业活动的其他中心在不断建立起来，最后会引发企业重新选址，人口会由老的中心向新的中心转移，从而对老中心的房地产价格产生压力。除此之外，过高的房价将带来政治压力，迫使政府放松对土地使用的限制，最终导致这些大城市住房供给（如高层公寓）的增长。

In the second chapter of the book, Hiller pointed out through a large amount of data and detailed analysis that the return of investing in real estate in the long run is not ideal. Many of them are quite comprehensive and can be deeply resonated. People in large cities often think that land prices for the most important departments as house prices will continue to rise. They are convinced that living in these areas has a unique 'advantage, people can enjoy the reputation of living in celebrities, or they can obtain benefits from business opportunities in these regions. It is easy for residents to think that more and more people have the same ideas as them. People will continue to drive up the real estate prices of their city, and the irrational prosperity of the real estate market begins to appear. But in fact, if house prices have risen too high compared to residents' income, people will be very difficult to afford a decent housing. People's ideas will also change. They will gradually realize that the reputation that lives in big cities is not so important, although individual cities are famous for their unique business activities. People will find that other centers with the same business activities are constantly being established, and finally the enterprise will re -select the location. The population will be transferred from the old center to the new center, which will put pressure on the price of real estate prices in the old center. In addition, excessive housing prices will bring political pressure, forcing the government to relax the restrictions on land use, which eventually leads to the growth of housing supply (such as high -rise apartments) in these big cities.

在第三章的促使市场泡沫产生的12个因素中的市场经济的疾速发展与业主社会中也有有趣的解释，甚至让我掩卷深思。

In Chapter 3, the rapid development of the market economy in the 12 factors produced by the market bubble and also have an interesting explanation in the owner's society, and even let me think deeply.

第四章说实话对我炒股在理念上是很有启发的，炒过股后看这章确实受益匪浅，这章详细阐述了放大机制：自然形成的蓬齐过程（通过一种反馈环），这章虽篇幅不多但笔记最多。

The fourth chapter is to tell the truth in the concept of my stock. After the stock speculation, this chapter does have benefited a lot. This chapter elaborates in detail the amplification mechanism: the natural formation process (through a feedback ring)Although this chapter is not much space, the most notes.

高潮精华后希勒还围绕文化、心理因素等方面再展开发表真知灼见。.。.。.

After the orgasm essence, Hiller also expressed his insights around culture and psychological factors.....Then, then, then

罢，罢，累了，长话短说，以后再叙。总之一句如果要炒股、炒房，甚至买房等投资，这本书都可以是奉为圭臬的一本书，桂明倾情推荐。

After that, I'm tired, say a short talk, and talk about it later.In short, if you want to invest in stocks, speculation, and even buy a house, this book can be a book that is regarded as Gui. Gui Ming recommends it.

《非理性繁荣》读后感 篇6

最近读了希勒写的《非理性繁荣》。这是一本学术著作，作者把非理性繁荣作为了一个研究对象从结构上，文化上，心理上进行了研究。我佩服作者的丰富的知识，严谨的考证，细心的调查，但我不太喜欢这种典型的西式研究方法，一切用图表数据说话，然后试图解释这些图表数据说明的东西。书我读起来有些拗口，这是因为我浮躁的心态，翻译的不畅。我只是简单的翻了一遍。但这过程中，围绕非理性繁荣这个命题，我确实想到了很多，这有很多我已经形成的观念和正在形成的观念，借此机会我正好把它表达出来。

Recently read the "irrational prosperity" written by Hiller.This is an academic work. The author has taken irrational prosperity as a research object from structure, culture, and psychological research.I admire the author's rich knowledge, rigorous research, and careful investigation, but I don't like this typical Western research method, everything uses chart data, and then try to explain things explained these chart data explanations.I read a little bit of mouth, because my impetuous mentality, the translation was not smooth.I just turned it over.But in the process, I really thought of a lot around the proposition of irrational prosperity. There are many concepts I have formed and the concept of forming. I take this opportunity to express it.

关于非理性？

About irrational?

投资者心理对经济理解总是延迟和放大的。中国自20xx年后的快速增长，直到05，06年才体现到股市上来，而且投资者放大了对经济增长的感触，07年就进入非理性的状态了。危机也在那时埋伏，当股市开始下跌，很容易就进入了*盘，这是一种非理性的恐慌，也不难理解为什么会很轻易的跌破基本面关口和心理关口。人也如此，发达时，自信和欲望也会极度膨胀，以为天下唯我独尊；落魄时，觉得自己什么都不是，自杀的心都有。股市就是由这样的人构成的，所以也有这样的性格。人要认清自己，成不骄，败不馁，任何时候都要有一个平和的心态。成熟的股市也应该这样。但话又说回来，不成熟的股市才有获得超额利润的机会。

Investors' psychological understanding of economic understanding is always delayed and magnified.China has grown rapidly since 20xx years, and it was only reflected in the stock market until 2005 and 2006, and investors enlarged their feelings about economic growth. In 2007, it entered an irrational state.The crisis was also ambushing at that time. When the stock market began to fall, it was easy to enter the*disk. This was an irrational panic, and it was not difficult to understand why it easily below the fundamental pass and psychological barrier.The same is true of people. When it is developed, self -confidence and desire will expand extremely, thinking that the world is only my respect; when I am down, I feel that I am nothing, and there is a heart of suicide.The stock market is composed of such people, so there is such a personality.People must recognize themselves, they are not arrogant, and they must have a peaceful mentality at any time.The mature stock market should also be the same.But then again, the immature stock market has the opportunity to get excess profits.

庞氏骗局和击鼓传花

Ponzi scam and drumming flowers

我在想这种放大效应是如何传播出去的。贪婪和恐慌最终是如何被放大到了疯狂。这其实就是个庞氏骗局，说白了就是传销。庞氏骗局因为臭名昭著的麦道夫而被大家所熟悉，传销在我国是明文禁止的。大盘涨了，所以更多的人进来，所以大盘再涨，直到泡沫破裂。*盘也是如此。大多数投资者都知道其中的端倪，为什么他们还参与到其中呢？我想这是一种“击鼓传花”的心理，每个人都不会认为自己就那么倒霉轮到最后一个，每个人都相信自己能都获利逃脱。这就是赌博了。

I am wondering how this amplifier effect spreads.How greedy and panic eventually enlarged to crazy.This is actually a Ponzi scheme, to say, it is MLM.The Ponzi scam was familiar with everyone because of the infamous McDonald, and MLM was banned in my country.The market rose, so more people came in, so the broader market rose again until the foam ruptured.*The same is true of the disk.Most investors know the clues. Why are they still involved in it?I think this is a psychology of "drumming and passing flowers". Everyone does not think that they just have such a bad luck to the last one. Everyone believes that they can escape.This is gambling.

在关键点操控

Control at key points

还有一个命题是大盘如何从一小部分人的狂欢演变成了全民狂欢。这类似于病毒传播模型，但我并不做过多地分析。我记得有个临界值，当感染比率大于这个值的时候，就有可能使整体都感染。我想说的是，临界值附近是个很危险的区域，这使得操控变成了可能。可能投入并不太多的资金，就可以使狂欢成燎原之势。这与索罗斯的观点很像。他就找到了这样的一个时机，狙击了英镑。我相信这样的投机机会会经常存在的。

Another proposition is how the broader market has evolved from the carnival of a small number of people to a national carnival.This is similar to the virus transmission model, but I don't do too much analysis.I remember that there is a critical value. When the infection ratio is greater than this value, it may cause the overall infection.What I want to say is that near the critical value is a very dangerous area, which makes it possible.The funds that may not invest too much can make the carnival into the trend of Liaoyuan.This is very similar to Soros's point of view.He found such an opportunity to snip the pound.I believe such speculation opportunities will often exist.

书中提到的一个小故事我很感兴趣。为什么《蒙娜丽莎的微笑》这么出名，远远超过了其它同时期的作品？这幅油画从艺术上真的超过其它作品很多吗？作者的儿子提出了这样的疑问。作者查证了一些资料，这幅油画历史上有很多文人对它进行了炒作，又发生了很多其它的故事，强化了人们心中的印象，以至于后来的人们又开始对它进行细细的论证，最终巩固了它作为一个超伟大作品的地位。这其实也是一个泡沫形成的过程，包含了传播，正反馈，或许还有一些关键时刻。当然，这个泡沫永远不会破碎了。因为艺术这种东西无法估价。

I am very interested in a small story mentioned in the book.Why is "Mona Lisa's Smile" so famous than other works of the same period?Is this oil painting really more than other works from art?The author's son raised such questions.The author checked some information. Many literati in the history of this oil painting speculated about it, and many other stories happened, which strengthened the impression in people's hearts, so that the later people began to demonstrate it.Eventually consolidated it as a super great work.This is actually a process of foaming, including communication, positive feedback, and maybe there are some critical moments.Of course, this bubble will never be broken.Because art is not valued.